We are very happy to publish our August edition from the Macro Research Group: "Warsh's First 100 Days."

In accordance with Kevin Warsh's 100th day in office as Fed Chair, the Macro team examined his current impact on the market with his new decisions to roll back forward guidance as well as to keep interest rates steady so far. The team concluded that due to ongoing turmoil in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as growing dissent to raise rates from the July meeting, a September hike of 25 bp is likely, and the investment thesis is to:

- Trim exposure to short-duration Treasuries (T-bills, 2-year notes)

- Add to longer-duration Treasuries (10-year notes)

- Add gold exposure (ETFs or miners).

A big thank you to our analysts for putting this together:

Head of Research: Kevin Ju

Analysts: James Francoeur, Noam Keinan, and Gregory Rayburn

Elphinstone Research Group | Scottish Registered Charity No. SC054318